Nigeria faces a critical choice over the future of its food system as climate change, insecurity, food waste and dependence on imports increasingly threaten the country’s ability to guarantee food security for a growing population.
The warning emerged from a presentation on Nigeria’s food system which showed that the country’s food challenge extends beyond how much it produces, raising questions about whether its agricultural policies are sufficiently prepared for a future of more unpredictable weather, shrinking resilience and growing demand for food.
Prof. Adeoluwa Olugbenga, who presented the assessment, disclosed that Nigeria had spent about ₦1.18 trillion on food imports, while approximately 40 per cent of locally produced food was reportedly wasted.
The figures point to a fundamental contradiction in the country’s food system: millions of Nigerians face difficulties accessing food even as substantial quantities of food produced domestically fail to reach consumers and the country continues to rely heavily on imports.
The challenge is expected to become more complex as climate change alters rainfall patterns, increases the frequency of drought and erosion in vulnerable areas and makes farming increasingly difficult to predict.
Against this backdrop, agriculture is entering a new phase in which the question is no longer simply how to produce more food, but how Nigeria can build a food system capable of surviving the environmental, economic and demographic pressures of the coming decades.
At the centre of the emerging debate is the direction Nigeria’s agricultural transformation should take.
Genetically modified (GM) crops are expanding alongside calls for greater investment in agroecology, putting two contrasting approaches to agricultural development increasingly in the spotlight.
Since the establishment of the National Biosafety Management Agency (NBMA) in 2015, more than 25 GM products have reportedly been approved, including GM beans, GM cotton and Tela maize, with some already reaching farmers’ fields.
For proponents, biotechnology forms part of the tools available to confront agricultural productivity challenges.
But campaigners opposed to GM agriculture have questioned its long-term implications for biodiversity, soil health, indigenous seeds, farmers’ livelihoods and food sovereignty.
They have called for a review of the National Biosafety Management Agency Act, arguing that stronger liability provisions are required to establish accountability in cases of environmental or agricultural damage associated with GM technology.
The controversy reflects a much bigger question facing policymakers: what kind of agricultural system should Nigeria build for the future?
The experience of Bt cotton has become part of that discussion, with some farmers reportedly questioning whether the GM variety delivered the productivity gains expected after several years of cultivation.
Concerns have also been raised over soil health and farmers’ dependence on commercial seeds and agricultural chemicals.
Critics argue that increasing dependence on purchased seeds and external agricultural inputs could raise production costs and reduce farmers’ control over seed saving.
Agroecology advocates, meanwhile, are proposing a different pathway built around soil regeneration, biodiversity, indigenous crops, seed sovereignty and reduced dependence on external inputs.
Joyce Brown, associated with the Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), highlighted the growing impact of climate change on Nigerian agriculture and argued that farming systems must become more resilient to changing environmental conditions.
Practices such as mixed cropping, crop rotation, composting and other soil-building methods are being promoted as ways of strengthening farms against climate shocks while protecting biodiversity.
One emerging example is Osun State, where a draft Agroecology Policy has been developed to provide a framework for sustainable agriculture and climate-resilient food production.
The draft policy, presented by Martins Ogunlade, contains six chapters covering sustainable agri-food systems, ecosystem restoration, agricultural markets and enterprises, food and nutrition security, knowledge development, implementation, oversight and funding.
It also proposes an Osun State Agroecology Policy Implementation Committee (OSAPIC) to coordinate implementation across relevant ministries and government institutions.
With about 740,000 hectares of land, including approximately 378,000 hectares of arable land, Osun has significant agricultural potential.
The proposed policy seeks to integrate agroecology into the state’s wider development, agricultural, climate-resilience, forestry, nutrition and local-government frameworks.
Perhaps the most immediate warning from the food-system assessment is not simply about production, but about what happens after crops leave the farm.
With approximately 40 per cent of locally produced food reportedly wasted, reducing post-harvest losses could become as important to Nigeria’s future food security as increasing farm output.
Investment in storage, transportation, processing and markets could determine whether additional agricultural production actually translates into affordable food for households.
The ₦1.18 trillion food-import figure also raises questions about Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks, particularly in a world where climate change, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to international supply chains can rapidly affect food prices and availability.
The emerging debate therefore goes beyond whether Nigeria should embrace or reject a particular agricultural technology.
The bigger challenge is how to create a food system that can produce more sustainably, waste less, protect farmers, preserve biodiversity, withstand climate shocks and provide affordable nutrition to a growing population.
Nigeria’s future food security will depend not only on what happens on farms, but also on decisions about seeds, soil, water, markets, storage, infrastructure, technology, nutrition and the rights of small-scale farmers.
The experience of recent years has demonstrated the consequences of leaving these issues disconnected.
The next phase of agricultural policy, therefore, presents an opportunity to move from responding to food crises after they emerge to building resilience before the next crisis arrives.
For Nigeria, the choice is increasingly about more than producing enough food for today. It is about whether the food system being built now will still be capable of feeding Nigerians in a hotter, more crowded and more unpredictable country decades from today.
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