By Dr. James Bwala
The political tension in Borno State is being shaped by two closely connected developments: the strategic emergence of Engr. Mustapha Gubio as the All Progressives Congress (APC) consensus candidate for the 2027 governorship election, and the growing backlash against Governor Babagana Zulum over the controversial arrest of individuals associated with the #TinubuMustGo campaign. Together, these developments reveal a deeper contest over political succession, party control, public accountability, and the limits of democratic expression in a state still recovering from years of insecurity.
The APC’s decision to endorse Gubio, reportedly supported by Governor Zulum and Vice President Kashim Shettima, has strengthened the ruling party’s political position. At the same time, the arrests linked to an anti-government campaign have generated criticism and raised concerns about whether political stability is being pursued at the expense of civil liberties. Although the APC’s consensus strategy may offer organizational advantages, its long-term success will depend on whether the party can combine continuity with openness, development with accountability, and political strength with respect for democratic rights.
Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s selection is significant because it reflects the APC’s desire to present the 2027 election as a referendum on continuity. As a former Commissioner for Works and a figure associated with the Ministry of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, and Resettlement, Gubio is positioned as a candidate whose experience corresponds closely with Borno’s central needs. The state continues to face the consequences of insurgency, displacement, destroyed infrastructure, disrupted education, weakened local economies, and the difficult task of rebuilding public trust. A candidate with direct experience in reconstruction can therefore argue that he understands the practical requirements of post-conflict governance.
This is a powerful political message. Rather than presenting the 2027 election as a choice between an established government and an uncertain alternative, the APC is likely to frame it as a choice between ongoing reconstruction and the risks of interruption. Such a strategy allows the ruling party to emphasize roads, schools, hospitals, housing, resettlement, public institutions, and economic recovery. It also enables Gubio to claim that his participation in previous reconstruction efforts gives him an advantage over opponents who may lack comparable administrative experience.
The argument for continuity is especially persuasive in a state where development projects are closely connected to security and social stability. Rebuilding destroyed communities is not merely an infrastructure exercise. It involves restoring livelihoods, encouraging displaced residents to return, strengthening local government institutions, expanding access to education and healthcare, and creating conditions in which citizens can once again participate in economic life. If the APC can demonstrate measurable progress in these areas, its candidate will benefit from a strong incumbency narrative.
Gubio’s selection also appears to be a deliberate attempt to prevent the internal divisions that often weaken ruling parties before elections. Governorship contests can produce bitterness among aspirants, create rival political blocs, and trigger defections. When a party conducts a highly competitive primary without managing the grievances that follow, opposition parties may exploit the resulting divisions. The consensus arrangement is intended to prevent this outcome by settling the succession question early and presenting a united front.
From the APC’s perspective, this is a rational political strategy. A consensus candidate can reduce campaign costs, limit destructive competition, and make it easier for party leaders to coordinate their political structures. It also offers aspiring politicians the opportunity to negotiate roles within a broader arrangement rather than engaging in an open contest that produces permanent winners and losers. If party leaders succeed in maintaining discipline, Gubio’s candidacy could become the center of an extensive coalition involving elected officials, party executives, traditional institutions, business interests, and grassroots mobilizers.
However, consensus politics can produce stability only when it is perceived as legitimate. If party members or citizens believe that the candidate was imposed without meaningful consultation, the appearance of unity may conceal resentment. Political agreement among powerful actors is not necessarily the same as broad public acceptance. The APC must therefore demonstrate that its consensus process was credible, transparent, and responsive to the interests of ordinary party members. Otherwise, dissatisfied politicians may remain within the party while quietly undermining the campaign.
The reported backing of Governor Zulum and Vice President Shettima gives Gubio a further advantage. Their support provides access to institutional networks, political experience, campaign resources, and a broad alliance within the APC. Governor Zulum remains an influential figure in Borno politics, while Vice President Shettima brings national visibility and strong political connections. Their joint support signals that Gubio is not merely an individual candidate but the chosen representative of a powerful political arrangement.
This institutional backing could make it difficult for opposition parties to compete effectively. Elections are not won solely through popularity; they also depend on organization, funding, messaging, agents, logistics, coalition-building, and the ability to mobilize voters across diverse communities. A candidate supported by the governor and the vice president is likely to inherit a well-developed political structure. Opposition parties, by contrast, may face limited resources, internal disagreements, weak grassroots organization, and difficulty presenting a credible alternative to the ruling party’s reconstruction agenda.
Nevertheless, political machinery cannot eliminate public dissatisfaction. It can mobilize supporters, but it cannot permanently conceal governance failures. The APC will still need to answer questions about unemployment, poverty, insecurity, the condition of internally displaced persons, the effectiveness of resettlement programs, access to education, and the distribution of development projects. The more powerful the ruling party becomes, the greater the expectation that it should provide clear evidence of performance.
This is where the controversy surrounding the arrests linked to the #TinubuMustGo campaign becomes politically important. The campaign, regardless of its ideological position or popularity, represents a form of political expression. The reported arrest of individuals associated with it has triggered criticism because citizens in a democracy should not be treated as criminals merely for expressing opposition to a government or political leader. Where arrests are made, authorities have a responsibility to explain the legal basis, present credible evidence of wrongdoing, and ensure that suspects receive due process.
Supporters of the government may argue that the arrests were necessary to prevent disorder, protect public security, or stop inflammatory activities. Borno’s history of violent conflict makes security a serious concern, and government officials cannot ignore credible threats. However, security arguments must not become a blanket justification for suppressing dissent. There is an important difference between peaceful political criticism and conduct that genuinely threatens public safety. A government committed to democratic legitimacy must distinguish between the two.
The backlash against Governor Zulum therefore extends beyond the specific arrests. It reflects a wider concern about the relationship between security governance and political freedom. In a state that has experienced terrorism and instability, citizens may accept certain security measures when they are lawful, necessary, and proportionate. They are less likely to accept arbitrary arrests, political intimidation, or the use of state power against peaceful critics. Such actions can deepen distrust and create the impression that the government fears public debate.
The controversy also creates a challenge for Gubio’s campaign. If the APC presents itself as the party of stability and continuity, it must clarify what kind of continuity it represents. Continuity in rebuilding infrastructure and restoring communities may be welcomed. Continuity in suppressing criticism would be far more damaging. Opposition parties will likely use the arrests to argue that the ruling party wants political control without accountability. They may portray Gubio’s endorsement as part of a broader effort to consolidate power and silence opposition before the election begins.
For this reason, the APC should not dismiss the backlash as a temporary political disturbance. It should treat it as a warning. A government that commands strong institutional support can afford to be more confident in its response to criticism. It should investigate the circumstances surrounding the arrests, communicate openly with the public, and ensure that law enforcement agencies operate within constitutional limits. Transparency would not weaken the government; rather, it would strengthen its credibility.
The opposition also has responsibilities. It must not exploit public anger through misinformation, incitement, or reckless claims. A credible opposition should offer practical alternatives on security, reconstruction, education, healthcare, agriculture, job creation, and democratic reform. Criticism becomes politically persuasive when it is supported by facts and accompanied by a realistic program of government. Without this, opposition parties may remain dependent on the ruling party’s mistakes rather than building genuine public confidence.
Ultimately, the political contest in Borno State will be decided by more than party endorsements. The APC has gained an early advantage through the selection of a candidate with relevant experience, the promise of continuity, and the backing of influential leaders. Its consensus strategy may limit internal conflict and give Gubio a strong organizational platform. However, political strength is not a substitute for legitimacy. The party must still convince citizens that continuity will produce better lives, not merely preserve political control.
The #TinubuMustGo controversy reinforces this point. Development and democracy cannot be separated. A state may rebuild roads and public buildings while weakening trust if citizens feel unable to criticize those in power. Conversely, political freedom without effective governance cannot address the material hardships facing communities. Borno requires both: sustained reconstruction and respect for constitutional rights.
The most persuasive path for the APC is therefore to combine its strongest political asset—continuity—with a clear commitment to accountability. Gubio should define his campaign through measurable development targets, public engagement, and an inclusive vision that extends beyond party loyalists. Governor Zulum and other party leaders should demonstrate that political stability does not require the suppression of legitimate dissent. The opposition, for its part, should transform criticism into a credible alternative rather than rely solely on controversy.
Borno State stands at an important political crossroads. The APC’s early consolidation has unsettled opposition parties and positioned Gubio as a formidable contender for 2027. Yet the same concentration of political power has intensified scrutiny of the government’s conduct.
Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja
About the Author
