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By Yunus Yusuf
Lagos, Dec. 20, 2025 (NAN) – A period of relative grid stability in 2025 has provided Nigeria’s beleaguered power sector with a rare and crucial opportunity. According to Dr. Olukayode Akinrolabu, a power expert and Chairman of the Customer Consultative Forum for Festac and Satellite Town, this calm should not be mistaken for a solution, but rather a platform from which to launch the deep, structural reforms the sector has long required.
In an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), Akinrolabu acknowledged the significance of the national grid recording no major system disturbances in the first quarter of the year—a notable departure from the frequent collapses that have plagued the network. “This development is a positive signal for system reliability,” he stated, “but it is merely the foundation. The real test is whether we can use this stability to address the chronic issues that limit supply, undermine revenue, and destroy consumer confidence.”
He warned that fundamental problems persist beneath the surface. Frequency stability remains a concern, with daily operations often outside acceptable limits. More critically, the sector is hamstrung by a familiar trio of constraints: peak generation shortages, recurring load rejection by Distribution Companies (DisCos), and an over-reliance on tariff adjustments as a primary policy tool.
Beyond Tariffs: The Data Deficit and Revenue Black Hole
Akinrolabu emphasized that recent tariff increases, while aimed at improving revenue sustainability, are insufficient on their own. “Tariffs are a financial mechanism, not an operational one,” he explained. “They cannot resolve deep-rooted sectoral problems without accurate customer network mapping and effective consumption tracking.”
He identified the metering gap as the most tangible symptom of this data deficit. With only 46.98% of customers metered, millions remain on estimated billing. This practice is not just unpopular; it is economically corrosive. It fuels endless disputes, erodes trust in the entire system, and makes accurate revenue forecasting impossible. The consequence is starkly visible in the sector’s financials: average DisCo collection efficiency stands at just 74.39%, with some performers far worse.
This inefficiency culminates in the critical metric of Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses, which remain alarmingly high at 39.61%—almost double the regulatory target of 20.54%. “These losses represent a massive revenue black hole,” Akinrolabu noted. “They are driven by a combination of technical inefficiencies, outright theft, internal sabotage, and, fundamentally, weak customer data systems. You cannot collect revenue for power you cannot accurately account for.”
The Upstream Bottlenecks: Gas, Infrastructure, and Investment
The challenges extend far beyond the DisCos. On the generation front, Nigeria’s heavy dependence on gas continues to be its Achilles’ heel. Most thermal plants operate below 50% capacity due to a perfect storm of supply shortages, pricing disputes, and relentless pipeline vandalism. This gas supply crisis is a direct constraint on the country’s ability to generate power, regardless of grid stability.
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Furthermore, aging transmission infrastructure acts as a bottleneck, unable to reliably wheel all available power. Weak regulatory enforcement fails to hold underperforming entities accountable, while limited investment, scared away by sectoral risks and legacy debts, stifles modernization.
A Blueprint for Consolidation: From Pricing to Pipeline Security
To translate momentary grid stability into lasting progress, Akinrolabu called for a synchronized, multi-pronged reform agenda:
- Gas Sector Revitalization: A comprehensive review of gas pricing to attract investment, coupled with a coordinated expansion of gas infrastructure and improved physical security for pipelines to curb vandalism.
- Financial Hygiene: Settlement of outstanding gas debts to restore confidence among gas suppliers and generators.
- Operational Mandates for DisCos: Enforcing mandatory, accurate customer network mapping and aggressive metering programs. This is non-negotiable for moving from estimation to accurate billing and collection.
- Regulatory Rigor: Strengthening enforcement mechanisms to ensure DisCos and other players meet their performance targets, particularly on ATC&C loss reduction.
In conclusion, Akinrolabu commended the intent behind tariff adjustments but stressed that their success is entirely dependent on effective execution. “The tariff is the ‘what.’ Implementation is the ‘how,'” he said. “Without proper customer network mapping and consumption tracking, tariff adjustments alone may not translate into improved revenue or better service delivery. We must move beyond financial fixes and commit to the hard, technical, and governance reforms that will truly power Nigeria’s future.” (NAN)(www.nannews.ng)
YO/AWA
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Edited by Olawunmi Ashafa
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